Carson City area weather update: Wind advisory goes up, more rain and Sierra snow this week
Submitted by Jeff Munson on Sun, 04/17/2022 - 5:31pm
The storm pattern for the Carson City area remains active with two more rounds of wind, rain, and Sierra snow this week, one Monday into Tuesday and the other late Wednesday through Friday, according to the National Weather Service.
For Monday southwest winds will gust to 35-50 mph with Sierra ridges approaching 100 mph at times. There will be a chance for wind prone areas to exceed 60 mph. Patchy blowing dust will also be possible downwind of sinks and dry lake beds Monday afternoon and evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 2 p.m. Monday to 11 a.m. Tuesday for the Greater Reno, Carson City, Carson Valley areas as well as Northern Washoe County and Mono County.
A light snowfall accumulation is possible above 6,000-6,500 feet Monday night through Tuesday. Amounts will generally be less than 2 inches at lake level in the Tahoe Basin while closer to the crest, 6 to 12 inches is possible. Western Nevada will mostly be shadowed for this event, although a dusting of snow is possible above 6,000 feet. Travel across Tahoe area passes will likely be slick and hazardous Tuesday morning.
A prolonged period of active weather is likely during the second half of the week. While it does not look as windy as the first system, it will be colder and wetter. Expect moderate to major travel disruptions across the Sierra.
Go here or read below the latest National Weather Service discussion that addresses the upcoming week.
For Monday afternoon/early evening, southwest winds will gust to 30-45 mph with ridge wind gusts approaching 100 mph as 700MB flow increases to 40-50 kts and combines with good low level mixing. As the front and precipitation approach Monday night, winds will increase further along the Hwy 395/I-580 corridor as well as the Tahoe Basin where widespread wind gusts 40+ mph can be expected. Latest probabilities suggest a greater than 70% probability of winds reaching or exceeding 60 mph for the more windprone areas. This will bring another period of rough lakes, turbulence and strong cross winds for transportation interests.
As far as precipitation, rain/snow will begin to move into the northern Sierra late Monday evening before spreading south toward the Tahoe Basin overnight into Tuesday morning. Projected QPF with this fast moving system has not changed much from the previous forecast with 0.50-1.00" along the Sierra crest from Ebbetts Pass northward to western Lassen County, 0.25-0.50 in the Tahoe Basin and generally less than 0.10" elsewhere including the Mono County crest.
Much of western Nevada will remain shadowed with some light amounts along the front as it passes Tuesday morning. Snowfall will be limited to light accumulations at lake level with 6-12 inches possible along the northern Sierra crest mainly above 6,500 feet. This would impact travel over the Tahoe area passes Tuesday morning. Breezy west to northwest winds and cooler for Tuesday as the system exits.
Wednesday through Sunday
The long-term period starts off with a very brief break in the precipitation as we reload between storms. A trough currently is moving through the Aleutian Islands of Alaska and will dig southward over the next few days. There is great agreement in the synoptic pattern and mass fields of this feature through mid day Wednesday, so let's start there.
After a touch on the chilly side, temperatures on Wednesday will warm up to near or a little below seasonable norms with highs in the low to mid 60s over western Nevada and upper 40s to low 50s in the Sierra. Out ahead of this next system, winds will be breezy/gusty as 700mb flow increases back to 40-45kt resulting in ridge top winds gusting to 90-100 mph. On the leeward side of the Sierra, blended model guidance also suggests breezy/gusty winds, but overall it looks less windy than the Monday, Tuesday system, and below advisory criteria at this point. Some upslope induced snow showers will be possible in the Sierra before noon Wed., but limited QPF is expected by that point in time.
Moving along to the real kicker of this system will be a pair of surface lows that begin to pivot around each other (known as the Fujiwhara Effect in case you're bored and need some light reading material) off the coast of Washington, B.C.
Think of this as one large low pressure system slinging several small-scale low pressure minimums, along with its associated energy, into the Pacific Coast. The timing and placement of these, or essentially when the large low "releases" the smaller lows, will play a large role in our sensible weather across northeast California and Western Nevada.
Factoring this variability into the equation which can't really be well resolved until 24 hours before or so, blended model guidance indicates 3 day precipitation totals ending Saturday morning of 0.75 to 2.25 inches (drier to wetter scenarios, respectively) along the Sierra Crest with much more variability of a couple hundredths to 0.30 inches in Reno, Carson Valley due to spillover odds.
During the same time period, 3-day snowfall amounts will range from 1.5 feet to 2.5 feet along the crest (drier vs wetter), 6-10in to 1.5 feet in Tahoe Basin, and a few tenths of an inch up to a 3 inches in the valleys of far western Nevada. This system will be colder, with snow levels below pass levels the entire time; more variability will be in place for those around the 5,000 foot levels.
Long story short, plan on periods of moderate to major travel delays in the mountains (and perhaps lower elevations) between late Wednesday through Friday. Stay tuned over the coming days as we can better fine tune the small but important differences in the features that was just discussed. It sure does look promising for re-building some of our depleted snow pack though.
Check back for updates. See NVroads.com for travel information.
