Carson City area weather update: Major storm this week to bring multiple feet of snow to Sierra, up to 8 inches for valleys
Submitted by Jeff Munson on Tue, 02/27/2024 - 12:49am
A couple of weak weather systems will pass through Carson City and surrounding counties through the midweek, followed by a potentially blockbuster winter storm Thursday into the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.
Windy conditions will start out the week, bringing light precipitation to the mountains and valleys. There's a winter weather advisory for the greater Lake Tahoe area and wind advisory in effect for the Carson City area and surrounding western Nevada counties.
After the systems move out, forecasters state there will be a shift to a "large and intense winter storm" expected to bear down on the Sierra and western Nevada, NWS forecasters said.
"For much of the region, this could be an event we'll be talking about for a while, with dangerous wind and snow impacts," forecasters noted in the latest weather discussion, which is updated twice daily.
What the storm is shaping up to look like
The storm is expected Thursday through Sunday, bringing high-impact winds, snow and cold temperatures for the Sierra and far western Nevada.
Forecast models continue to show moderate-high chances, above 60 percent, for strong, potentially damaging winds (gusts 55-plus mph) across western Nevada and northeast California valleys Thursday into Friday. For Sierra ridges, peak gusts of 120-plus mph are virtually certain (an 80 percent chance) at times from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning.
The main factor for snowfall totals will be the duration of the heaviest snow, especially when occurring during the night hours.
Weather models indicate very heavy snow totals across the Sierra at all elevations. Latest probabilities detail over a 90 percent chance for over 4 feet of snow along the Sierra crest around the Tahoe Basin, and a 60 to 70 percent chance for Mono County crest.
Lower elevations in the Tahoe Basin including Tahoe City, Incline Village, South Lake Tahoe have 75 to 85 percent chances of over 3 feet of snow during this period. Communities along US-395 in Mono County are looking at anywhere between 1-3 feet, with areas such as Mammoth Lakes and June Lakes near the 4 foot mark.
Western Nevada foothills, elevation of 5,000 to 6,500 feet, will have the most challenging projections for snowfall amounts, as snow levels fluctuate around 5,000 to 5,500 feet for much of Thursday night into Friday. Depending on how much moisture spreads over and if snow intensities are sufficient to support daytime accumulations, the amounts could vary from less than 1 foot to as much as 3 feet. The higher end totals would occur in areas that remain all snow starting Thursday night, and also if snow continues to pile up through Sunday.
Snow in Carson City, Carson Valley and surrounding counties
Lower elevations aren't out of the mix either, with a similar 75 percent chance for a foot of snow in northeast California west of US-395 and foothills of far western Nevada, 5,000-plus feet, forecasters said.
For lower valleys (below 4,500 to 5,000 feet, precipitation likely begins as rain Thursday night, changing to snow by either Friday or Friday night. Any precipitation from Saturday morning onward will be snow at all elevations as cold air spreads across all of western Nevada, forecasters note.
Valley floors across the main urban areas of Reno, Carson City and Minden and the Surprise Valley still have about 60-70 percent chance of receiving anywhere from 6 to 8 inches and 15-30 percent chance of a foot more more (except probabilities are a bit lower for Reno's lowest valleys), while farther east across west central Nevada, (Lovelock, Fernley, Fallon, Yerington, Hawthorne), amounts still look to be notably lighter, with less than 15 percent chance of exceeding 4 inches.
Farther east across west central Nevada, snow amounts look far less impressive, but the arrival of the cold air (15-20 degrees below average) would lead to slick roads even with lighter snowfall, forecasters said.
Weather Service forecasters note that as with any storm projection this far in advance, there's a slim potential of the track wobbling off its current course and producing amounts below these initial expectations. However, this particular storm has shown more consistency than any other system we've tracked so far this winter season.
With any winter storm, significant or not, motorists should be prepared for changing road conditions. See NVroads.com, call 511 and check back for updates.
