Sunny, breezy and cooler temperatures are in the forecast going into the July 4th holiday weekend around the Carson City region and at Lake Tahoe, according to the National Weather Service.
For Independence Day weekend, forecasters say to expect below average temperatures and breezy winds due to a trough moving into the West Coast. There’s a slight chance for showers close the Oregon border however the Sierra and western Nevada should remain on dry side.
Noteworthy will be the noticeably cooler temperatures with daytime highs 5 to 15 degrees below average Sunday and Monday. Highs in the low to mid 80s are expected in the lower valleys with upper 60s to low 70s in Sierra valleys.
For Carson City, Carson Valley and Dayton areas, daytime highs will be in the mid-80s Friday and Saturday and near 80 on Sunday and Monday. For the Lake Tahoe Basin, temperatures will be in the low 70s Friday and Saturday and the mid to upper 60s on Sunday and Monday.
Enhanced westerly wind gusts 30 mph to 35 mph and dry conditions are expected areawide Saturday, with lighter but still gusty winds Sunday and Monday.
Forecasters advise those heading outdoors to avoid causing sparks near dry vegetation and follow local fire and firework restrictions.
Additionally, expect some boating impacts Saturday and Sunday afternoon as area lakes will be choppy.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon through early Monday across far northeast California and northwestern Nevada. Check back for updates as conditions may change.
The latest National Weather Service forecast discussion is below, with updates here.
THROUGH FRIDAY:
Typical daytime breezes and seasonably warm to round out the workweek as the area remains between a trough off the West Coast and a ridge over the south central US. Continued very dry with poor overnight humidity recoveries. General southwest-west winds 10 mph to 20 mph with gusts around 30 mph. The Rices Fire is fortunately not resulting in much smoke, so for now we have removed the forecast of haze for northeast California and parts of western Nevada.
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND
Confidence is very high in the offshore trough deepening and edging inland during the holiday weekend. This will result in cooling temperatures and of course more wind. Right now, thermal gradients appear tightest Sat-Sun as the cooler air works into the region with gusts in the 30 mph to 35 mph range, locally stronger in wind prone spots. Ridges will gust to 50 mph to 60 mph. There could be some blowing dust across western Nevada.
By Monday, the cooler air will have pretty much settled over the Sierra and Great Basin with weakening thermal gradients and winds aloft as well. It will still be breezy for Monday, July 4. The long advertised cool down will result in temperatures falling at least 10 degrees below normal by July 4th when highs will be close to 70 degrees in the Sierra valleys and low-mid 80s across lower elevations.
If we had more clouds or showers, it would have been quite a chilly weekend. But moisture will be lacking since much of the instability and dynamics will stay north in Oregon and Idaho. There is a small chance a few showers or isolated storms could reach into far northeast California or northwest Nevada, but ensemble members that supported this 24 hours ago have backed off a bit. So for now there’s low confidence for areas north of Susanville and Gerlach.
BEYOND JULY 4TH:
(Forecast mapping) continues to point the main monsoon push into the Four Corners region and keep a dry southwest flow across much of California and Nevada through at least mid week, possibly longer. As temperatures begin to climb back to near normal by Wednesday, it’s not inconceivable to have a few buildups return to the Mono and Mineral County convergence.
However, this will be a very slow process and it will likely take a few days before enough moisture/instability builds to overcome the warming temperatures aloft to generate enough vertical development for isolated storms. There are some indications of a better surge the following weekend as the upper high shifts west.
