Major spring weather swings are on tap for the Carson City region, Lake Tahoe area and Sierra over the next several days with near-record warm temperatures followed by freezing conditions by Monday evening down to the valley levels and a few inches of snow in the Sierra, according to the National Weather Service.
After warming into the 70s to mid 80s in lower valleys by Friday, a trough of low pressure will bring increased breezes and push down temperatures into the weekend, bottoming out Monday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50 for the valley and 30s and 40s in the Sierra.
The trough will also bring a chance of snow or snow showers at all elevations, NWS forecasters say. Hard freezes are on the table Sunday night through at least Tuesday night, though winds may help to mitigate the threat to a degree, according to the weather service.
Forecast lows around Carson City on Sunday night will be in the low 30s and by Monday and Tuesday night overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 20s.
Go here or read below the latest discussion from NWS forecasters.
Thursday and Friday
Those of us who have lived here for some time are accustomed to the wide variability of springtime weather across the region, and usually over very short periods of time. Mostly sunny days with above average highs on occasion are immediately followed by much colder, below average temperatures with a dusting of snow to add insult to injury. Its a nice wake-up call to remind you that nature is in charge. Thankfully, Thursday and Friday are rather the warmer, near summer preamble to enjoy before the onset of changes possibly happening this coming weekend.
Friday should see a repeat of these warmer, above average temperatures even though the upper ridge succumbs and shifts east from greater forcing imparted by an upper short wave pushing into the Pacific Northwest. The resultant forcing could reinforce afternoon Zephyr winds which could bring the possibility of winds gusting 23-35 mph over parts of northeast California and western Nevada. Lake wind advisories are not out of the question for Pyramid Lake in the afternoon into the early evening.
High temperatures across western Nevada valleys and northeastern California are expected to reach into the lower 80s and upper 70s respectively with Sierra valleys reaching into the 70s. Not much change in Fridays temperatures, but it will still be battling an invading layer of clouds into the region that may tend to bring a few degrees of cooling to Sierra valleys.
Saturday through Wednesday
Major cool down expected by early next week with snow accumulations in the mountains, gusty winds, and sub-freezing temperatures in the valleys.
Temperatures will begin to cool off over the weekend as a cold front slowly dips into northern Nevada. This will bring temperatures down to right around average for this time of year with highs in the 60s in western Nevada and in the 50s in Sierra valleys. Some northerly breezes can be expected with partly cloudy skies, so all in all, a nice spring weekend.
That will change as we go into Monday when a much stronger cold front is forecast to quickly bring winter-like weather back to the region. Expect gusty winds in the valleys, mountain snow that may impact travel over the Sierra, along with mixed precipitation and even some snowflakes possible in the lower elevations.
Recent model runs continue to show significant inconsistency in the track of the incoming low for Monday with the latest few runs of the GFS/EC trending to a more inland (drier) trajectory. Either way, a few inches of snow in the mountains (3-6″ish), and light snow in the Sierra valleys (1-3″), along with some light rain turning to snow showers by Monday evening in western Nevada remains the most likely scenario. If the track of the low continues to move eastward those numbers could be a bit lower, but the incoming cold temperatures remain very likely.
Winds are looking a bit stronger in recent simulations with gusts to around 40 mph through western Nevada and up to around 80+ mph along the Sierra crest.
Freezing overnight temperatures are a near certainty throughout the region by Monday and Tuesday nights as very cold air moves into the region. Temperatures will rebound back to near normal by the end of the week.
Check back for updates.
