Weather systems may bring light snow to Carson City and Sierra later in the week
Submitted by Jeff Munson on Mon, 11/27/2023 - 3:38pm
Several weak systems will begin to move through the Sierra and Carson City region from midweek onward, bringing continued below normal temperatures, periods of snow and travel difficulties, according to the National Weather Service.
In the short term, high pressure that is building into the interior western US will continue to influence the region with clear skies, light winds, cold overnight lows and inversion areas around Carson City and Reno areas. See airnow.gov for up-to-date air quality conditions.
The shift in weather will coincide with the first in a series of low-end low Pacific systems that begin to influence the region by mid-week with slightly stronger systems passing over the region Thursday evening through Sunday, NWS forecasters said.
"Even though these systems don't look to be major Sierra snow makers, the Pacific storm projected to drive into the region late this week may be enough to satisfy many winter weather enthusiasts for now," according to the NWS weather discussion from Monday afternoon.
The first weakly-forced Pacific weather system will keep most of the precipitation west and south of the Sierra on Wednesday, forecasters said. A few errant light showers still could ride along the Sierra from northeast California to the Lake Tahoe Basin. Only a few hundredths of an inch of liquid precipitation is expected in the Sierra with little in the way of any measurable rainfall will make its way east over the Sierra crest into western Nevada.
Weather models show a 20 to 30 percent chance of a trace up to an inch of snow with 90th percentile still leaning toward an inch of snowfall over the highest peaks of the Sierra Wednesday morning and afternoon, according to the NWS discussion. A few snow flurries could sneak over south of US-50 Wednesday.
The next Pacific system in the series will have the stronger forcing available to bring both higher liquid precipitation totals and enhanced breezes over the Sierra that will spill east into western Nevada Thursday evening through Friday.
Weather models indicate snow-levels hovering between 4,000 to 5,000 across the Sierra, snowfall chances of 40-50 percent for 6-plus inches of new snow will make travel over Sierra passes more difficult at best. See NVroads.com or call 511 for road and travel conditions.
For "down here" in the lower valleys, models are showing a 50 percent chance for a trace of snowfall through the Friday morning commute, with around a 15 percent chance for up to 1 inch, NWS forecasters said. Keep your eyes on the forecast, as a slight shift in the track of the low could increase our chances for light snow along the valley floors of far western Nevada.
A subsequent but lesser forced system will drag across the Great Basin back-door like and bring more snow to northeast California and northern Nevada north of I-80 Saturday and Sunday, NWS forecasters said.
Although this final system in the series looks to be less wet, it will still have enough forcing aloft to bring a 30 to 40 percent chance for westerly ridge-top winds peaking at 60 mph. After the weekend into early next week, weather models show another round of dry and stable conditions, NWS forecasters said.
