Carson City area weather: Showers and thundershowers possible later Monday

National Weather Service forecasters say rain and thunderstorms are likely to develop Monday south of US-50 and quickly move northward with the greatest chances for rain over Mono, Mineral, Lyon, Churchill and Pershing counties before moving into the Reno, Carson City and Lake Tahoe regions.

These storms will be rather wet, bringing flash flood concerns for recent burn scars and steep terrain if storms form in those areas. Stronger storms are possible with a myriad of impacts including: Gusty and erratic outflow winds, hail, and frequent lightning, in addition to the localized heavy rainfall.

There is also risk for a larger area of blowing dust moving across parts of west central Nevada later this afternoon and into this evening, producing rapid drops in visibility.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service in Elko issued a Flash Flood Watch until 8 p.m. for portions of eastern Nevada, north central Nevada and south central Nevada, including the following areas, in eastern Nevada, White Pine County. In north central Nevada, Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County. In south central Nevada, Northeastern Nye County and Northwestern Nye County.

Here is the latest forecast discussion Monday morning from the National Weather Service.

Thunderstorms today may be strong with heavy rain, hail, gusty outflow winds and possible flooding. Thunderstorm chances decrease Tuesday onward, but could return next weekend. Seasonable summer temperatures continue through the week with typical afternoon breezes.

Short term: No significant changes were made to the overall weather picture for the next few days, but see the fire weather segment for additional details where some headline changes were made.

Main highlights through Wednesday night:
Thunderstorms forming this morning south of US-50 will expand northward this afternoon. Best potential for heavy rain continues to target Mono, Lyon, Mineral, Churchill and Pershing counties.

Areas of smoke and haze continue to affect the region from the Dixie and Tamarack fires. Outflows from today's storms could influence smoke transport from Tamarack this afternoon-evening.

The push of monsoonal moisture across western Nevada has generated some light rain showers early this morning, with trace amounts reported at Reno airport and outside the NWS office. Lightning doesn't appear to be a significant threat as this shower activity moves across northwest NV and far northeast CA for the next few hours, although a few cloud flashes can't be fully ruled out.

Otherwise, attention turns to the main thunderstorm threat today with initial activity developing south of US-50 during the morning, and then expanding north this afternoon. While the best overall storm chances favor Mono County northward across west central Nevada, outflow interactions and a modest push of west winds this afternoon will provide convergence sufficient for isolated storms forming across the remainder of western Nevada and far eastern California.

The deep moisture will be in place, setting the stage for storms producing frequent lightning, heavy downpours, small hail and possible flash flooding on burn scars or steep terrain. Also, there could be a well organized outflow capable of producing localized dust storm conditions across west central Nevada from late afternoon into the evening.

Later tonight, showers lingering in west central Nevada will diminish while drier air spreads across the remainder of the region.

Tuesday and Wednesday look mainly dry, except for a couple of stray thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon, with residual moisture and heating over parts of Mono County and adjacent portions of Lyon-Mineral counties. Seasonable daytime and overnight temperatures with typical late afternoon zephyr breezes (gusts 20-30 mph) are expected both days.

See CarsonWeather.com for updates and more around the capital city region.