A dry, quiet pattern will persist through much of the weekend around Carson City and surrounding counties, with a slow moving storm system that will likely bring valley rain and high elevation snow showers to the region early into the middle of next week, according to the National Weather Service.
A warming ridge aloft and light winds may contribute to inversions and air stagnation across the region Friday into Saturday. This will contribute to haze and pollutant buildups near urban areas and potential impacts to prescribed burns by limiting smoke dispersion, forecasters said.
Weather changes will begin Sunday evening into and Monday through Wednesday of next week as a slow moving low pressure system will move in from the West Coast bringing high elevation snow and valley rain showers.
“This is one of those tricky patterns however where confidence in rain, snow amounts are below normal. Moisture transport is decent but direction is not optimal for maximizing precipitation amounts and spillover in our region, being more southerly than the optimal west, southwesterly direction,” according to the latest NWS forecast discussion.
But for now it appears to be a multi-day period of precipitation that will add up in the mountains especially close to the crest, according to weather service forecasters.
Thus far forecasters believe the snow will be confined to higher elevations for most of the duration, with rain and snow lines averaging between 7,000 to 8,000 feet areas south of Lake Tahoe to Mammoth with higher peaks to benefit the most in terms of snowpack pick up.
But there is still an appreciable boom bust potential for heavy mountain snowfall, with some weather models showing snow at the higher elevations between anywhere from 1 to 3 feet.
Spillover in the the lower elevations and valleys is possible Monday through Wednesday but for the valleys, the rain should be showery and light in nature given the southerly flow trajectory, NWS forecasters said. High temperatures for Carson City and other valley areas will are in the low to mid 50s through at least through Tuesday, with rain possible Monday and Tuesday and a chance for rain and snow Wednesday.
The winter storm door looks to remain open for the balance of next week into Christmas weekend as simulations show additional waves dropping in along the coast, but lower confidence in character and potential impacts. As of Thursday’s weather models, hazards outlook has a moderate risk of heavy snow for the Sierra Dec. 25-27.
Stay tuned and check back for updates. See NVroads.com for travel information as the weather systems begin to roll in.
