Winter is headed our way, but what kind of winter can we expect? See the short video below that summarizes the drought situation in Nevada and California, what’s up with El Nino, and the official NOAA winter outlook just released Thursday. Share with your friends and communities who may be interested in what this winter might bring.
Although El Nino has not developed yet, NOAA expects a weak to moderate El Nino to begin over the winter months and continue through spring. How much moisture will be associated with this year’s phenomenon of water warming in the Pacific Ocean remains unknown. But given the ongoing drought through California and Nevada, any amount of precipitation will help with snowpack in the Sierra and keep lakes and reservoirs in the Sierra with water.
Speaking of lake and reservoir numbers, the National Weather Service reports the level of Lake Tahoe fell below its natural rim (6223.0 feet) Wednesday. This situation is not unprecedented. The lake has fallen below its natural rim 7 times since the late 1970s, the last time in November 2009.
Since reliable records began in 1900, the lowest point the lake has reached is 6220.26 feet in November 1992, during a prolonged drought. The longest periods were from September 1990 through April 1993 and again from September 1993 through February 1995.
The chart shows the lake can rise dramatically after when prolonged dry periods are followed by much wetter periods. Once the lake falls below its natural rim water does not flow out of Lake Tahoe, effectively making all of the water in the lake unusable storage at that point.
Go here for the second part of the National Weather Service video that goes into the science of seasonal prediction in the Sierra and western Nevada.
