The next weather system moving into the region late Monday into Tuesday will bring rain to Carson City and surrounding counties and high elevation snow to the Sierra.
While there is concern this warm atmospheric river system may bring areas of flooding to Sierra valleys, along rivers and ponding at the lower elevations, National Weather Service forecasters say the threat level is low.
Forecasters say dry conditions are expected for much of Monday with daytime highs in the 50s to lower 60s in western Nevada while Sierra communities are looking at temperatures in the 40s and 50s.
Chances for precipitation then begin to creep into the Sierra late Monday night as the weather system approaches. Considered “a weak atmospheric river event” by NWS forecasters, the system will move through the region Tuesday into Wednesday.
Precipitation chances look to be at their peak Tuesday with 70 to 90 percent chance in the Sierra and northeast California, 40-60 percent in the Sierra Front and 10 to 30 percent in the Nevada Basin and Range. At this time, forecasters say a few inches of snow is possible at the highest elevations of the Sierra. Otherwise for lake level and lower valleys, we’re looking at rain with this system along with gusty winds.
There are no weather advisories, watches or warnings at this time. Precipitation chances will taper off in the region Wednesday. See NVroads.com for up-to-date travel conditions.
While flooding from the upcoming weather system is possible, NWS forecast confidence is low at this time. Currently, models show the Sierra portions of the region has a marginal risk (at least 5 percent) for excessive rainfall on Tuesday. The rain over snow will lead to quicker runoff especially in urban areas.
Forecasters advise to clear snow from drainages to help prevent possible ponding. Also, rivers and streams within the area are forecast to see rises leading to some potential flooding concerns this week. In particular, the Woodfords river gage for the West Fork Carson River has a 5-25 percent chance of reaching minor flooding stage on Wednesday, forecasters note.
Check back for updates.
