Cold temperatures, wind and snow will be returning this week for the Carson City area and Sierra region, according to the National Weather Service. Forecasters say that while snow amounts are trending upward, they will be meager by Sierra standards.
The cold blast starts Monday and will last through Thursday, with highs struggling to get out of the 30s in even the warmest valleys Tuesday and Wednesday. If skies clear out, Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be the coldest night of the week, NWS forecasters said.
Southwest to west winds will be on the increase Sunday with widespread 30-40 mph gusts, locally stronger in wind prone locations. This will bring choppy conditions to area lakes, turbulence for aviation, and potential travel difficulties for high profile vehicles. Sierra ridgelines could see gusts reach 80 mph, affecting backcountry recreation. Winds will weaken, but remain breezy out of the northwest on Monday. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect at Lake Tahoe from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Sunday.
A quick shot of snow showers is anticipated Sunday night into Monday morning with the cold front, and additional snow showers are probable Monday night through Wednesday. While overall totals will be light, we all know it doesn’t take much to cause slow downs and travel difficulties. It may be best to allow extra time for the morning commute Monday through Wednesday, NWS forecasters said.
It will be quite chilly Monday through Thursday. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday may not get out of the 30s in even the warmest of valleys, with teens and 20s in the mountains. Overnight lows will likely be coldest Tuesday and Wednesday nights, but will also be dependent on cloud cover. Anticipate widespread teen and single digit low temps, with below zero readings in colder Sierra valleys.
Meanwhile, on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada and the Motherlode area, there’s a Winter Weather Advisory from 4 p.m. Monday to 4 a.m. Wednesday. Snow is expected and motorists going over the Sierra should plan on difficult travel conditions.
Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches above 4,000 feet, with localized amounts up to 18 inches over the peaks. For the Motherlode 1 to 4 inches of snow between 2,000 and 3000 feet are expected. Lowering snow levels on Tuesday may bring a dusting of snow down to around 1,000 feet.
For more on this week’s weather, see the NWS Forecast Weather Discussion here or see below.
Winds will be on the increase today ahead of a slider-type system that will move into the region late tonight through Wednesday. This will bring periods of snow showers, travel difficulties, and much colder temperatures to the region through Wednesday night. A gradual warming and drying trend is on tap for end the week into the start of next weekend.
Overall forecast message remains unchanged with a cold week ahead and periods of snow and travel difficulties likely. Make sure you leave extra time for the morning commute Monday and Tuesday! Here are the details:
WINDS:
Southwest to west winds will be increasing Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. This appears to be a more typical wind event with gusts primarily in the 30-40 mph range for valley locations, locally stronger in wind prone spots along the Sierra Front. Winds will bring chop to area lakes, some potential travel difficulties for high profile vehicles, and bumpy rides for aviators.
Across Sierra ridgelines, gusts up to 80 mph may affect ski areas and backcountry recreation. Winds will weaken Sunday night, but not fully decouple with the cold frontal passage, turning NW-N in direction behind the front Monday morning.
SNOW:
Light snow showers are possible with the cold front tonight into Monday morning and ensemble solutions are predominately hinting at a dusting up to an inch, but we all know it doesn`t take much to cause problems for the morning commute. These “slider” systems can be tricky and can locally overperform with snow totals, but the lack of abundant moisture and speed of the front should limit totals.
A reinforcing shortwave drops into the main trough Tuesday, carving the trough farther west. This brings additional chances for snow Monday night through Wednesday morning and ensembles/blended guidance continue to trend upward with amounts.
Per National Blended Model guidance, there is now a 50-85% chance (up from 30-65%) for 2″+ of snow in western Nevada with this second shortwave, with odds for 4+” now up to 20-50% for portions of the Sierra Front, adjacent to the Carson Range. In the Sierra, we`re looking at a 70-95% chance of 4″+ and a 20-50% chance for 8″+ in the upper elevations. Keep in mind, these are multi-day totals. The snow will come in periods of showers and is unlikely to fall all at once. The character of the snow will be on the drier and more powdery side, due to the cold air mass.
TEMPERATURES
It will still be mild today, but clouds and winds will be on the increase. The big cold shock will be Monday-Thursday. We’ll see a solid 15-25 degrees of cooling on Monday with the northerly breezes behind the front making it feel that much colder.
The secondary shortwave will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air into the region for midweek and the latest blended guidance has trended colder once again. Taking a look at the EC EFI max/min temp guidance, it is also signifying a fairly unusual event on the cold end of the spectrum for this time of the year with increasingly negative values.
High temps Tuesday and Wednesday may not get out of the 30s, even in the warmest of valleys, with teens and 20s in the mountains. Overnight lows look to be coldest Tuesday and Wednesday nights, in particular Wednesday night if skies begin to clear out. Anticipate widespread teen and single digit low temps, with below zero in colder Sierra valleys. Bundle up! Looks like winter hasn’t given up yet.
For road conditions, see NVroads.com.
