A weak storm system will bring chances for light rain and snow showers and increased winds in higher elevations into early Friday morning with dry and mild conditions returning through the Christmas holiday weekend, National Weather Service forecasters said.

A more active weather will return next week through the start of 2023, with potential for several storm systems bringing valley rain and mountain snow, along with plenty of wind.

The weak and fast moving system will bring a chance of rain and snow Thursday night into early Friday morning along with increasing winds across the ridges. Amounts are likely to be only a few hundredths of an inch up to 0.10 of an inch. The best chance for snow will be in the Lake Tahoe Basin northward into northeast California and northwest Nevada north of I-80, according to the weather service.

Light snow accumulations, a dusting up to around one inch, will be mostly above 7,000 feet in the Sierra and above 5,000 to 5,500 feet for far northeast California and northwest Nevada. Otherwise, mild conditions are expected behind this wave for Friday with some patchy Sierra valleys freezing fog returning Friday night as skies clear.

Saturday through Thursday
Forecasters say the dry, mild weather is on track through Sunday, with afternoon highs on Christmas day climbing into the low to mid 50s for the Sierra Front and Lake Tahoe Basin communities. Slightly cooler temperatures are anticipated north of I-80 where cloud cover will be the greatest. Some light showers will be possible in the extreme northern portions of the forecast area near the Oregon border Saturday night, but models show minimal chances.

After Christmas, changes begins to ramp up, this time as an atmospheric river is expected to bring gusty winds, valley rain and high elevation snow, according to forecasters in the latest National Weather Service forecast discuss found here and condensed below.

Beginning Monday, southerly winds will kick up, with ridgetop winds increasing on Monday, gusting to 70-100 mph. Moving into Tuesday and early Wednesday, stronger winds will arrive with ridgetop winds forecast to exceed 100-plus mph and south to south-southwest low-level winds will begin increasing out ahead of the front as well, NWS forecasters say.

Weather models suggest Tuesday gusts will exceed 56 mph along the US-395 and I-580 corridor in western Nevada, and in the lower elevations of the Tahoe Basin.

Precipitation
Forecasters say this is a fairly warm atmospheric river and it will pump in some solid moisture into the region. As of the latest weather models show, valley areas will likely experience rain while higher elevations will receive heavy/wet Sierra cement.

Through Wednesday night only, the latest deterministic guidance forecasts 4-6 inches of liquid along the crest, and 2-4 inches in the Tahoe Basin and Eastern Sierra communities along with NE California west of US-395. The Sierra Front looks to receive 1-2 inches while east of US-95 is generally 0.5 inches or less. Places like Truckee/South Lake Tahoe have about a 30 percent chance of exceeding 3 inches during this period of time.

Snow
The real kicker will be snow levels, snow ratios, and how those fluctuate during the event, forecasters said. Snow levels have trended up slightly at the onset around 8,000 feet. They will likely stay this high until the front passes through. The time to really watch for snow levels to reach major Sierra arteries and begin impacts will be after sunset Tuesday. In heavier precipitation bands, snow levels could quickly fall by 1,000 feet or more during the day Tuesday, but it will be Tuesday night where there may be travel impacts.

Through Wednesday night, there is high confidence (60 to 70 percent) in at least 24 inches along the eastern Sierra crest above 9,000 feet. A 20 to 40 percent chance of at least 12 inches along the Sierra Crest above 7,000 foot (Lake Tahoe Basin), including Donner Pass. A 25-35 percent chance of at least 6 inches at lake level, including Truckee.

Finally, there’s 20 percent chance of an inch across Carson City, Minden and Gardnerville. It will likely be a warm, wet snow without a lot of accumulation. As always, things could change as we get closer.

For the latest road conditions, go to NVroads.com or call 5-1-1. Check back for updates. If your plans take you into or across the Sierra next week, keep an eye on the forecast and be prepared to adjust plans accordingly.