Nevada Population Projections Show Bleak Future In Near Term
Submitted by admin on Tue, 10/12/2010 - 12:21pm
By Nevada News Bureau
CARSON CITY – Nevada is projected to lose more than 50,000 residents by 2014 because of the ongoing state economic slump, state Demographer Jeff Hardcastle said today.
The short term projections are bleak under either of two models developed by Hardcastle to forecast Nevada’s population growth through 2030.
The similarities using the two different sets of data end starting in 2015. From 2015 to 2030, using a more pessimistic model, the state’s population could grow as little as 14,000, an insignificant gain for a 15-year period, he said. Using more optimistic data shows the state’s population growing by as much as 1.2 million during that same period.
“While the long-term projections differ between the two, both show the same short-term results,� said Hardcastle, who is housed in the Nevada Small Business Development Center in the University of Nevada, Reno College of Business. “The two projections show a net loss of almost 54,000 people by 2014.�
Hardcastle said he developed two scenarios for the first time because of the uncertain economic climate. Nevada leads the nation in unemployment and home foreclosures.
The population projection report says Nevada’s total employment peaked in May 2007. Nevada led the nation in population growth in 2007. In 2006 Arizona was the fastest growing state but prior to that, Nevada was the fastest growing state for 19 years.
“Things have changed since then,� the report said. “Between the peak and the bottom, Nevada has lost over 196,000 jobs. Job loss in Nevada appears to be flattening out with the low point having been in January 2010.�
Overall, Hardcastle said change will be uneven across Nevada. Population estimates for northwestern Nevada (Carson City, Churchill, Douglas, Lyon, Storey and Washoe Counties) are uncertain for the next 20 years, ranging from losing 4,000 people to gaining more than 100,000. Southern Nevada (Clark and Nye Counties) could grow by 27,000 to more than 1.1 million over the next 20 years.
To achieve the highest projections given, Hardcastle said that Southern Nevada will still need to see a substantial resurgence of its bread-and-butter industry – hospitality and gaming. That industry and the construction industry are key considerations in projecting population estimates for both northern and Southern Nevada, he said.
“At one point, we had 88 percent higher employment in the construction industry here in Nevada than the national average,� Hardcastle said. “That’s how dependent we were on that industry, along with gaming.�
Hardcastle said population projections in rural Nevada (Elko, Esmeralda, Eureka, Humboldt, Lander, Lincoln, Mineral, Pershing and White Pine Counties) are also shaky, and will mainly be dependent upon whether these areas can continue to ride the wave of the current growth in its mining industry over the next 20 years. He emphasized that job creation is what will determine which scenarios play out throughout the state.
“From May 2007 to January 2010, Nevada lost more than 190,000 jobs,� he said. “To bounce back from that, it’s going to take a lot of job creation. We need to be having discussions about what are the jobs that will replace those that we have lost.�
The population projections are used in preparing the state’s budget and for other planning purposes. A draft of the projections has been sent to local governments and other interested parties for comment.
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